The AFC South may be the worst division in the NFL, but over the past few weeks, we are seeing some quality start to come out of it which may lead to an exciting race for the crown.
The Houston Texans have won six-straight games after starting 0-3. They were buyers at the trade deadline and are among a shortlist of legitimate Super Bowl contenders.
The Tennessee Titans may be the most frustrating team in the league because of their inconsistencies despite their tremendous talent. But they have won back-to-back games impressively, outscoring the Dallas Cowboys and New England Patriots 62-24 combined.
But it doesn’t stop there, as the Indianapolis Colts are about to crash the party and turn everything upside-down. Yes, they are 4-5 but are in an excellent position to make a run at a wild-card spot and make the playoffs over the upcoming seven weeks.
The Colts are only two games behind the first-place Texans and a game back of the Titans. But more than that, it’s the makeup of the team combined with their position that puts them in a prime spot to make the playoffs for the first time in four seasons.
With so much value placed on the passing game, it starts and ends with Colts star quarterback Andrew Luck. He has led Indianapolis to three straight victories, and if he continues to play as he currently is, the Colts will be surprise playoff contenders. And there isn’t any reason to see him slowing down anytime soon.
Luck has long been the only guy in Indy; they’ve always gone as he goes. He’s always had to carry the franchise like no other, outside of Aaron Rodgers. The former first overall pick has never had a defense, never had weapons to throw to, and never had a running game to shoulder the load. But perhaps worst of all, the old front office never equipped him with even average pass protection to keep him upright. On top of all this, he never had good coaching.
He continuously took a beating each year since being drafted, and despite possessing (arguably) the worst roster in the NFL for years, he led them to three consecutive 11-5 seasons and playoff appearances. But there is only so much one guy can do himself with no support.
The continuous beatings finally caught up to him, and he dealt with injury issues, including a shoulder problem, over the last few seasons. But how things have changed since Chris Ballard took over the front office. We are seeing Andrew Luck being supported.
The defense is still lousy, but they have a defensive gem in rookie linebacker Darius Leonard. However, if the offense is running as it is in today’s NFL, they will be right there until the end.
The Colts are the sixth-highest scoring team in the league and ninth in yards-per-game, and it is all a credit to the support around Andrew Luck which is close to optimizing his talent.
Luck has passed for 2,472 yards on a 66.3% completion rate in nine games, and his 26 touchdowns are the most behind only Patrick Mahomes. But Luck leads the league in touchdown passes since the start of Week 3, and with a game in hand on Mahomes during this stretch.
We are seeing Andrew Luck when he has any semblance of help, and it starts with new head coach Frank Reich. The 56-year-old has been an excellent hiring and is another example of why you need to pair your franchise quarterback with a quality offensive mind.
Reich was the offensive coordinator with the Philadelphia Eagles last year, and with his departure, we see Carson Wentz struggle more than usual in his return from a torn ACL.
Reich is setting up Luck for success and making the game so much easier for the 29-year-old. He is optimizing the Hall-of-Fame talent the Stanford alum possesses.
The front office still needs to do a better job of surrounding Luck with good wide receivers, but they have given him two quality tight ends to throw to. And one, in particular, Eric Ebron, already has nine receiving touchdowns and two rushing ones.
The running game has become a presence, although more average than anything. But, ‘average’ is much better than what Luck has had to deal with in the past. They have two games of at least 220 rush yards in a game and running back Marlon Mack is looking like a keeper.
But again, Luck is the core and pulse of the offense, and he can only run if upright, which is finally happening. He is being protected better than almost anyone in the game this year. The offensive line is vastly improved, starting with their 2018 first-round selection of Notre Dame guard Quenton Nelson.
He leads an offensive line that has allowed the second-least sacks in the game, has the lowest sack percentage (2.6%) of any team in the game, and are better-than-average in quarterback hits allowed. but most impressive is that they have not allowed a sack in their last four contests.
The combination of the offensive scheme, time to throw, and the lack of hits are giving us an Andrew Luck most did not expect to see this year. He is having perhaps the best season of his career, and the importance of offense allows his excellence to outweigh the lackluster defense.
And the Colts schedule isn’t much of gauntlet either. They have remaining games with the Titans twice, Miami Dolphins, Jacksonville Jaguars (who they just beat), Houston Texans, Dallas Cowboys, and New York Giants. Combined, they are 24-30 (ahead of Monday Night’s game).
A 5-2 finish is extremely realistic and would put them at 9-7. That may be enough to get the sixth seed over the Miami Dolphins, Tennessee Titans, and Cincinnati Bengals.
The Dolphins are playing with Brock Osweiler at quarterback, which alone is enough to kill their hopes. Regardless of how good the Titans have looked the last two weeks, they are perennially inconsistent and underperformers. And the Bengals are the Bengals and not deserving of our trust.
The Indianapolis Colts are far from great and have too many holes on defense to be considered a legitimately good team. But, with such an emphasis put on offense, an MVP-caliber Andrew Luck with a relatively easy schedule ahead of him can make up for it and crash the AFC playoffs.
