Believe it or not, we are already six weeks into the NFL. There is still a lot of football to be played, but we now have a healthy sample size in which we can finally have an analysis that can carry real weight. Teams that were hot early have come down to earth while the teams that struggled early on are righting the ship. Here are three big talking points after the NFL’s Week 6.
The Seattle Seahawks Are Quietly Better than Expected
This year was perceived as being the first of a new rebuilding era in the Pacific Northwest, with the Seahawks’ once-elite defense, headlined by the ‘Legion of Boom,’ officially gone and the intimidation factor of the unit vanished. And on the offensive side, quarterback Russell Wilson was a one-man wrecking crew being “protected” by arguably the worst offensive line in the game, supported by virtually no running game, and having no above-average weapons to throw to outside of Doug Baldwin. Not to mention, this is Pete Carrol’s last year on his current contract, so there was speculation that this might be his final season with the franchise, making things all the more complicated and noisy.
It was supposed to be the end of an era, with Russell Wilson being the only reason the franchise was relevant, and a losing record was expected. And after the season’s first two games, things were following this narrative, as they started 0-2.
However, fortunes have changed since, as Seattle has quietly won three of the last four, with the only loss being by two points against the league’s best team and now sit at 3-3. And how they are doing it is giving us reason to believe that the Seahawks might be better than we initially expected.
They have gone back to a physical brand football, becoming a run-first team again. They are rushing it 30 times a game (second-most in the league) and are averaging 127.8 yards/game. But, over the last three games, they have accumulated (chronologically) 171, 190, and 155 yards on the ground, while their 100+-yard streak dates to four-straight games.
The defense has been better than advertised, having an above-average pass rush, a top-five pass defense and are dominating the turnover batter with a +7-turnover ratio because of 13 takeaways already. These all have correlation and causation with their winning.
The NFC is loaded, but with the support that superstar quarterback Russell Wilson is getting, this team can dream of the playoffs if they continue playing as they are. Wilson will keep them in games because he’s just that great, but the team’s ceiling is dependant on how the components around him come together. And so far, so good.
The New England Patriots Are Fine
All hell was breaking loose (again) early in the season after the Patriots started a disappointing 1-2 and looked worse than pedestrian on offense during their Week 3 loss against the Detroit Lions. But, one thing we needed to keep in mind was that under Bill Belichick, New England always started slowly in September. It’s always been a time for him to see what he has in his roster and what adjustments he will need to make.
And that is why they are always exceptional starting in October and going into November, December, and January, which is what we see now. Brady’s offensive supporting cast was initially the worry with the team, but over the past few weeks, those concerns have been put to bed. They won a shootout against the NFL’s highest-scoring and the AFC’s best team (record-wise) this past Sunday and have now scored 119 points in the three games since scoring only 10 in Detroit. And during this stretch, they have gotten Julian Edelman back to pair with Rob Gronkowski, giving Brady his two most trusted weapons, potentially ever, together again.
The Pats have a running game they can depend on now, with Sony Michel finally emerging and validating his first-round status. As a unit, the ground attack is averaging 123 yards/game on 29.2 attempts/game, while Michel has accumulated 400 rush yards in his five games, along with four touchdowns. But in the last three games, he has rushed for 316 yards with all four touchdowns, establishing himself as a legitimate go-to runner, with James White serving as an excellent complement.
Oh, and they still have Josh Gordon on the team, although he has yet to get fully ingratiated into the group. But that was expected because he needs to learn the playbook, and Belichick has admitted to increasing Gordon’s role with the team each week. It’s only a matter of time before the wide receiver gets adequately acclimated with the system, and whatever they get from him is just a bonus because of the weapons they already have.
He is among the most talented receivers in the game, and if he pops, the Patriots may have the best disposal of weapons in the league, with a legitimate number one receiver, arguably the greatest tight end ever, one of the elite slot receivers in the game, and a good running back corps.
And on defense, they continue to bend, but not break. They have an inconsistent pass rush which steps up situationally, but a quality pass defense, for the most part. And you can bet they will only get better as Bill Belichick gets more time to tinker with the unit. The Patriots are back; no other way to put it.
The Green Bay Packer Are a One-Man Team Again
The Monday Night Football Game between the Green Bay Packers and San Francisco 49ers was the epitome of the Packers over the last six, seven seasons: Hope that Aaron Rodgers bails them out and saves them in a game they have no business winning. For years now, the Green Bay Packers have taken Rodgers for granted and have not surrounded him with any top-level talent, expecting him to continuously turn average talent on offense into above-average, and make up for mediocre after mediocre defenses.
The coaching continues to be average and non-innovative, while lacking creativity, expecting Rodgers to improvise continuously on the spot. He usually has no running game, and his receivers can’t seem to stay healthy. Davante Adams and Jimmy Graham are probably the only cogs of support he has, and their level is elevated because of Rodgers.
And Monday night, all of it was put on display. The defense struggled against a backup quarterback and running back, allowing them to look like All-Pros. And the offensive game plan was subpar once again, and all this made Rodgers have to score 10 points over the last three minutes to pull off a tremendous comeback. He had to pull a rabbit out of his hat once again, just like during Week 1 against the Chicago Bears, and made exquisite throw after exquisite throw.
They have a middle-of-the-pack defense, but those numbers are skewed because of a 22-0 shutout against a Buffalo Bills team that is the worst offensive unit in the game. If not for that performance, they’d be near the bottom of total defense. There was frankly nothing impressive about that defensive showing, and even Rodgers was annoyed with the offensive game plan from the coaches. 22 points in that game are nothing to write home about.
But this has been the story for years: Being mediocre until the end of the game and expecting their superstar quarterback to bail them out. During The Herd Tuesday morning, Colin Cowherd put up a graphic showing over the last three seasons, the Packers’ point differential is -91 in the first three-quarters of all their games, but +105 point differential in the fourth (which is the best over that span). It has proven to be unsustainable, and the 2018 season looks to be a rinse and repeat of the past, making it unlikely that the Packers come close to even sniffing a Super Bowl unless they get support for that “Baaaaaad Man.”
