ESPN recently released their NBA Summer Forecast standings for the upcoming 2018-2019 season, and in totality, they’re mostly accurate, at least with the standings. But there are some things, such as record projections, that stand out because they are underestimating some teams.
Two of the teams that ESPN is underestimating, in some shape or form, are the Boston Celtics and the Los Angeles Lakers, but before we get to that, here is how ESPN’s panel expects the playoffs in each conference to look like, with the projected standings in parentheses:
Eastern Conference Western Conference
- Boston Celtics (58-24) 1. Golden State Warriors (61-21)
- Toronto Raptors (55-27) 2. Houston Rockets (57-25)
- Philadelphia (53-29) 3. Utah Jazz (49-33)
- T-4. Indiana Pacers (47-35 4. OKC Thunder (49-33)
- T-4. Milwaukee Brewers (47-35) 5. Denver Nuggets (47-35)
- Washington Wizards (44-38) 6. LA Lakers (46-36)
- Miami Heat (43-39) 7. New Orleans Pelicans (45-37)
- Detroit Pistons (38-44) 8. Minnesota Timberwolves (45-37)
With the Celtics, winning 58 games may be a bit of a disappointment. Yes, that sounds crazy because it is an elite amount of games to win, but they have everything working in their favor to win over 60 games, and potentially have the best record in the NBA.
Boston won 55 games last year without a full season of Gordon Hayward, and with Kyrie Irving missing 22 games. Hayward is an All-Star that is a top-15-to-top-20 player in the league, while Irving is an All-NBA-caliber player.
It’s understandable that increasing your win total as you collect more and more wins is tougher, but surely that duo is worth more than a five-win increase, especially when you take into account a full year’s development of Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, and Terry Rozier under their belt. Maybe ESPN belies ingratiating Hayward and Irving work against them.
But Boston also has a top-2 coach and great chemistry which will make it easier. And again, this is complaining about a 58-win projection, but they are easily the most talented in the inferior Eastern Conference. And there is no doubt Boston will be hungry to fight for the best record in the NBA because they know the only way to beat the Golden State Warriors is to have the first two games and the last one in the Finals in Boston. They have a legit chance of surprising and touching 63-65 wins.
But no doubt, the biggest talking point is going to be the Los Angeles Lakers’ projections because they are glamour franchise of the NBA that just added the best player in the NBA, and perhaps ever, in LeBron James. However, as great as the superstar is, the media is split on the LeBron and the young Lakers.
Some people think the team will grab homecourt in the West because of James, but the growing majority is leaning towards a bottom seed, at best, or completely missing out on the playoffs. Analysts and media members are confused and not fans of the Rajon Rondo, JaVale McGee, Lance Stephenson, and Michael Beasley signings because they don’t bring shooting and will take playing time away from the younger players.
But the Lakers All-Rookie selection from last season, Kyle Kuzma, isn’t worried. He believes his team is being slept on:
“We are both (he and James) definitely excited about the roster and the pieces that we have,” Kuzma told ESPN on Tuesday. “And we think that a lot of people are underestimating us. It is definitely going to be fun playing with all these new guys.”
And he continued with:
“I don’t know why people kind of just rule us out because we are young. We are hungry. We are competitive. Anybody that watched us play last year, we were in a lot of games. Having one of the greatest players of all time is going to raise what we do, raise our level of focus and the team to a higher level. I don’t really see why [there is a need to be] so patient.”
It’s not hard to see his point. This team has a great chance to be a lot better than people are giving them credit for. They were competitive last year, for being one of the youngest teams in the league. At one point, LA went through a 20-9 stretch from January to March, which included beating LeBron’s Cavs, and showed the potential of this talented core.
They lost 15 games by six points or less (two possessions) and a handful more by seven points. Those are close games that youth and inexperience lost the team. Don’t you think LeBron would have helped with that?
They may not be a top-3 team in their conference next season, but 46 wins may be underestimating. Over the last two seasons, they have gone from 17 wins to 26 wins, to 35 wins. With the natural progression of the young players, this was a team that was tracking for a .500 record without LeBron James.
And now you can argue that the Lakers have a legitimate chance of reaching 50 wins and claim homecourt in the first round of the playoffs. We cannot underestimate the effect LeBron James will have on the team. He alone will improve the team by something close to 10 wins, but he will also amplify the steps that Brandon Ingram, Kyle Kuzma, Lonzo Ball, and Josh Hart will be taking.
And many have pointed out that the Lakers’ core is better than the overall roster construction the Cleveland Cavaliers surrounded James with, and that claim is legitimate. Save for Kevin Love, the Cavs had no one else, and even Kevin Love’s play declined tremendously when he went to Cleveland.
We may see LeBron have just as good of a season this next year as he did the last and win the MVP. An MVP James is just so much better than anyone else in the league.
And if you want to point out that he’s not in the Eastern Conference, that is fair, but the West isn’t as strong as you think either. Houston got worse, New Orleans lost Rondo and DeMarcus Cousins while replacing them with Julius Randle, the Oklahoma City disappointed tremendously and have plateaued, and San Antonio lost Kawhi Leonard.
Numerous moving parts are working in cohesion in the Lakers’ benefit, and it’s time to stop ignoring them. Them and the Celtics are being slept on, in two different respects, but they will surprise.
