Before the non-waiver trade deadline, the Chicago Cubs needed significant help in their starting rotation, so they went out on a (bit of a) limb to acquire left-hander Cole Hamels from the Texas Rangers. The veteran was not having his best of years in 2018, posting a 4.72 ERA and 1.373 WHIP in 114 innings across 20 starts.
Thus, he did not cost much to acquire, as the Cubs only had to give up two minor league pitchers and a player to be named later. They were buying in low on a 34-year-old with a tremendous track record who also happened to be a pending free agent. And due to the struggles with health and production of their starting staff, it was a chance worth taking.
Kyle Hendricks has a 3.86 ERA and 3.99 FIP, Jose Quintana has a 4.33 ERA and 4.74 FIP, while Tyler Chatwood has been a big free agent bust so far, posting a 5.22 ERA and 5.55 FIP in 23 games (20 starts). Their best pitcher has been Jon Lester, who has a solid 3.67 ERA, but that does not tell the whole story because he has been the receiver of enormous fortune. He has a 4.78 FIP on the season, and it’s starting to catch up to him, as the veteran has a 5.30 ERA over his last seven starts. Also, we all know the $126 million bust Yu Darvish has been.
Thus, Cole Hamels has been a much-needed addition and breath of fresh air for the Cubs, as is the other way around. The change of scenery from Arlington to the north side of for the starter has been a godsend. Hamels was having a solid season with the Rangers before a horrific July that saw him allow 21 earned runs in 17 innings which inflated his ERA from 3.61 to 4.72.
However, since changing jerseys, the southpaw has regained his Cy Young-caliber form and is having a bit of a renaissance. Remember, he had a career 3.30 ERA during his ten seasons with the Philadelphia Phillies, and a career 3.39 ERA in total. Hamels is known for being a workhorse, cracking 200 innings eight of nine seasons between 2008-2016, and the one year he didn’t, he threw 193.2 innings.
As of August 28th, he has made five starts for the Cubbies, spanning 34 innings, and has allowed just four runs (three earned) and 32 baserunners. To put that into numbers people are more familiar with, that’s a 0.79 ERA and 0.941 WHIP. His last three starts have been his best, throwing seven innings, seven innings, and a complete game (in that order), while allowing just two runs.
However, maybe we shouldn’t be surprised. First off, for a veteran like he, who has had great success in the past and who has performed under the brightest lights, may just need to have been thrown into the heat of a playoff race to reinvigorate him. Plus, he had the misfortune of pitching at a home ballpark that is historically hitter-friendly.
Hamels had a 6.41 ERA at home with Texas this season and 2.93 ERA on the road. With Texas, he had a .811 OPS against, but a .911 OPS allowed at home inflated that mark. Away from home, it was .697, and with Chicago, it’s only .497 with a minuscule .231 wOBA.
According to FanGraphs, Hamels’ walk rate with Chicago is 3% lower than it was before the trade, and he has been a lot better of stranding runners. A lot of his success has been due to a great defense behind him and improved sequencing. Hamels’ has almost doubled the usage of his four-seam fastball and is throwing it a lot more on the first pitch, while having added over one mph on his four-seamer, cutter, and sinker.
Moreover, all three of those fastballs have entirely flipped in their effectiveness, at least with the four-seam and sinker. While with the Rangers, batters toasted Hamels’ four-seamer to a tune of a .378 average and .805 slugging percentage. However, since joining the North Side, those numbers have dropped to .286 and .286, respectively. He sinker had a .348 average allowed and .483 slugging against, but those numbers have dropped to .231 and .231, respectively. Also, the cutter was a good pitch already but has become twice as good (statistically).
There has been a lot that has happened to help Cole Hamels improve his play and find his groove once again, but you also must give the Chicago Cubs credit. They are a progressive franchise in their scouting and statistical analysis. Teams like them, the Los Angeles Dodgers, Houston Astros, etc. usually don’t acquire a guy who is struggling unless they look deeper into the player and believe they can utilize him better than his current team.
And that is what the Cubs have done. The difference in the sequencing of pitches before and after the trade is tremendous. Hamels is yet another example of looking beyond just the surface numbers and digging deeper while betting on pedigree. If he continues his improved play, the Cubs will have found their ace for the remainder of the season.
Featured Image via Flickr/Keith Allison
